By CHUCK POLLOCK, Sun Senior Sports Columnist
Well, it’s down to two.
Four games into this National Football League season, only the AFC’s Buffalo Bills and NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles remain unbeaten.
Indeed, you could get pretty good odds that those two teams will meet in the Super Bowl.
But 13 games are still on the schedule and the Bills face an interesting test Sunday night at Highmark Stadium (NBC-TV, Bills Radio Network 8:20 p.m.) against the New England Patriots (2-2) long before Buffalo and Philadelphia meet in Orchard Park, Dec. 28.
Buffalo is off to a great start in the division, having beaten Miami, 31-21, and the Jets 30-10, but the reality is the Bills have had their struggles, record notwithstanding. They stole a 41-40 victory over Baltimore via a furious rally that they won on the last play of the game in the opener. And the triumphs over the Dolphins and Saints were one-possession affairs (Miami trailed by a touchdown with 22 seconds to play; New Orleans was down by two points with seven minutes to go).
Still, with a win over the Pats, Buffalo will have won 15 straight regular-season home games scoring at least 24 points each time, tying Denver (1997-98), and New England (2017-19) for the league record.
HOWEVER, Buffalo has had its problems in two defensive areas: stopping the run and defending third down.
The Bills have been awful against opposing rushing, giving up an average of 164.3 yards a game, 31st in the league and only 2/10ths of a yard ahead of last-place Chicago (164.5).
Buffalo is only slightly better on third down, surrendering an opposing success rate of 42%, 25th in the NFL.
Those numbers, while indicting, have been bailed out by the Bills offense which is the only league team to score at least 30 points in every game (33 average) this season.
Running back James Cook, the AFC Offensive Player of the Month, has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first four games, and is chasing Cleveland’s Jim Brown (1968) and Buffalo’s O.J. Simpson (1975) who each scored in the first six games to start those respective seasons.
THE PATRIOTS situation is interesting.
New England was Buffalo’s divisional rival for two decades when coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady were a team winning Super Bowls (six of them).
But Brady left for Tampa Bay after the 2019 season and Belichick, going it alone, had four mediocre seasons when the Pats went 29-38. He left two years ago for the college ranks and was replaced by former New England linebacker Jerod Mayo, who was promptly fired after a 4-13 season.
Next up was long-time Pats edge rusher Mike Vrabel, recently fired by the Titans. A no-nonsense tough guy of the Dan Campbell mode New England might have solved its coaching problem.
Vrabel inherited an improving young quarterback, Drake Maye. Through this season’s four games the Pats destroyed the Panthers, held off the Dolphins and dropped one-score decisions to Las Vegas (20-13) and Pittsburgh (20-14).
This is clearly an improved team which is why Buffalo, playing at home, is favored by only eight points.
GIVEN their recent struggles, this is a rare prime-time appearance for the Patriots.
“You better enjoy playing in prime-time games,” Vrabel said. “Certainly it will be a huge challenge. The last time (Buffalo) lost at home was 14 games ago. We’ll have to do a lot of really good things to give ourselves a chance.
“They’re, playing good, clean football, they’re not beating themselves and doing a nice job in all phases. It’s important that we can take the next step, show that we’re ready and that maybe some of our identity has a chance to let itself out on Sunday night.”
As for quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo’s reigning NFL MVP, Vrabel said, “He realized that he’s got immense talent, and he’s done a much better job of taking care of the football. That’s been the big difference for me. A few years ago, (he was) forcing things in the red zone that led to some turnovers. Now he just has a greater understanding of taking care of the football in those situations.”
When asked about Cook, Vrabel offered an understatement about the back who has rushed for 401 yards in four games, 13 fewer than the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, the league leader.
” He’s a good player,” he said, “they’ve got good guys blocking for him … his vision, his patience, his balance and burst. Everybody’s at the point of attack. He runs where you’re not and if you have bad discipline or you don’t chase your gap when it’s moving away from you, he’s going to come back and find it.”
Unless they meet in the playoffs at Orchard Park, this is Vrabel’s last visit to the old Highmark Stadium before the new one debuts next season.
“I love the ride up,” he admitted. “I love the passionate fans, coming up into that thing, driving down the road and seeing the same things you saw for 20 years in this league. It’s a great sports town and we’re excited to go there on Sunday night.”
INJURY REPORT: If your first name is Dorian and you play defense for the Bills, you won’t be facing the Patriots this week. Linebacker Dorian Williams (knee) and cornerback Dorian Strong (neck), the rookie sixth-round draft choice who has played unexpectedly well are out. Four other players are questionable: defensive tackles Ed Oliver (ankle) and T.J. Sanders (knee), offensive tackle Spencer Brown (calf) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral).
POLLOCK’S PICK: Bills 27, Patriots 20
(Chuck Pollock, a Wellsville Sun senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@wnynet.net.)
