The cost and frequency of “unprecedented” disasters has increased dramatically since 1980
OP-ED by Walt Mason, Alfred NY
Since about twenty years ago, after the fact of human influenced climate change had been proven, the question became “would it be bad or very bad?” It looks like the “very bad” side is winning. There haven’t been big changes in the estimates of temperature increase, but the expected punishments caused by those increases have been increasing steadily.
Global warming is already causing problems. The five year average inflation adjusted costs of United States weather disasters has increased from 14.2 billion in 1985 to 123.4 billion in 2023, a rate 2.5 times the growth of GNP. That’s $360 dollars a year for every person in the US last year vs $58 dollars for every person in 1985. You can’t attribute any single event to global warming, but there are many more events, and you can attribute the the vast majority of the increase in damage to global warming. There are no other suspects. Earthquakes, which are not associated with global heating, do not show the same increase in damage. The way these costs are starting to manifest themselves in ordinary life is increases in homeowner’s insurance rates, especially in the states of Florida (hurricanes, and fire and floods) and California (fires). Insurers are looking for and getting bailouts, but even with that, property insurance rates in “Florida are predicted to jump at least 40% in 2023, according to the Insurance Information Institute.”In California “new home buyers and people getting dropped from their existing coverage have had a tough time finding homeowners insurance this summer in California as more and more major insurers stop writing new policies in the state.” This increase has been nationwide, because one of the types of damage increasing the most has been from billion dollar thunderstorms which increased from an average of about 1 per year in the 1980s to 19 in 2023. These, as everybody knows, can occur anywhere. The national flood insurance program is, as always, in need of a bailout.
One surprise, related to global warming, is that the Maldive Islands are not sinking into the waves. Sea level rise hasn’t slowed, but the islands are able to add material from their coral reefs allowing them to maintain their area. But climate change has more than it’s share of unpleasant surprises. One recent one is, that since septic systems need a space between them and the water table in order to function, sea level rise is going to make septic systems over a large areas unusable. In Miami this is already a 3 billion dollar problem. Another surprise is that global warming is affecting the price of food. Global warming is making dry areas dryer and wet areas wetter. The west is facing running out of water in the worst drought in 1200 years. The drier areas of Africa are facing the worst drought in a hundred years. Coffee and Chocolate are two very important commodities that are facing severe difficulties. “Global cocoa supply is anticipated to decline by almost 11% to … compared with 2022-23.” This doesn’t seem like a surprise, since anything that changes the weather affects food prices. But the expected estimates of damages used by governments to calculate costs and benefits, didn’t include any agricultural damages till the next century.
Unprecedented, a word you expect when once in a thousand year events become once in a hundred year events, is being heard too often recently.
Since it is in our power to prevent the worst effects of climate change, it makes sense to do it.
