By CHUCK POLLOCK, Sun Senior Sports Columnist
They’re the second longest odds on the NFL wild-card playoff board but there are a lot of people who believe Sunday’s game at Highmark Stadium between the Bills (13-4) and the Broncos (10-7), 1 p.m. CBS-TV, Bills Radio Network, will be close.
The square-off opened with Buffalo favored by 7 1/2 points and it has risen to 8 1/2. Only the Ravens, 10-point favorites in tonight’s AFC meeting with the Steelers in Baltimore, is higher.
THERE are a couple of reasons some “experts” are giving Denver a shot.
One is the fact that six of the Broncos’ losses have been one-score games and another is coach Sean Payton who, in 16 seasons with the Saints, made the playoffs nine times with three berths in the NFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl victory.
As Bills coach Sean McDermott noted, “He’s one of the best coaches in our league. He’s won at the highest levels and won a Super Bowl. And in terms of how fast they play I think he’s one of the best offensive play-callers that there is … so to me it’s no surprise the success that they’ve had.”
THEN THERE’S Denver’s defense.
The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks with 63 and it’s not even close … Baltimore is next with 54.
“They’re extremely talented and it starts there,” McDermott said. “It jumps off the film in terms of how fast they play and how explosive they are. They’re the top team in the NFL in terms of rushing the passer … how well they come off the ball … how fast they play and they have the No. 1 corner in (Patrick II) Surtain back there. When you have that formula (of rushing the passer and quality coverage) you’ve got a pretty good defense … and they do.”
And Denver has another weapon in rookie quarterback Bo Nix with 29 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions while rushing for four scores. In five collegiate seasons — three at Auburn and two at Oregon — he threw for 113 TDs, 74 in those two seasons with the Ducks, 45 his final year.
“He’s a rookie, but he broke a record for the number of snaps he took in the collegiate game so he seems extremely poised for a young quarterback,” McDermott said. “I’ve been extremely impressed with his mobility, his ability to extend plays and he makes a lot of plays with his arm. I think they’re got a real good one.”
DEVELOPMENTALLY, Nix relishes being compared with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and Bills ‘Josh Allen at this point in his career.
“This is where I want to be,” Nix admitted “(These playoff games) are the moments that matter. These are the moments that people remember guys. So you’ve just got to go out there and cut it loose and play … trust your teammates, trust what you’ve prepared for throughout this entire year — and frankly, my (entire) career, my (entire) life. This is just where that work finally gets to come into play. And it’s going to be fun.”
MEANWHILE, in their third straight season as the AFC’s No. 2 seed the Bills have their own burden to carry.
Last season, in was a painful 27-24 loss to nemesis Kansas City in Orchard Park and two years ago it was a brutal 27-10 loss to the Bengals at Highmark.
As a playoff coach, McDermott is 5-6 and he admits, “There are very few teams that go on a clean straight path to their goals. Most of the time, there’s a journey of some ups and downs and a journey of some learns and dealing with some adversity and it’s no different for us and we learned from it and we embrace it.
“Every (No. 2 seed) year is different and every team takes on its own identity. It’s in our history of not accomplishing our goal year-to-year but we’ve had a lot of success in this league and you look at an AFC that is loaded with high-level teams and it starts for us this week with a rally good football team in the Denver Broncos. “
He added, “This is a big challenge … a good football team with a Super Bowl-winning coach and a team that’s very talented across the board — all three phases — the return game with a Pro Bowl returner, the defensive line is very talented affecting the quarterback and their offense has done a phenomenal job in moving the ball and not turning it over.”
BUT THERE are some challenges for Nix.
In the last 11 seasons, only four rookie quarterbacks have won a playoff game … all at home. It’s been 12 years since a rookie QB has won a road playoff game and in the past 22 years rookie quarterbacks are 19-38 in the playoffs.
But there are some compelling stats in Denver’s favor. Buffalo has permitted 44% of third-down conversions, 29th of 32 NFL teams and Nix has been sacked third fewest times in the league.
Conversely, Buffalo has committed only eight turnovers this season, tied for the fewest since the NFL started keeping that stat in 1933.
THE BILLS got good news on the injury report as kick returner/wide receiver Brandon Codrington was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury but McDermott admitted, “If he can’t go, we’ll figure something out.”
Denver’s injury report was similarly kind as only reserve tackle Frank Crum (illness) was declared out.
POLLOCK’S PICK: Bills 24, Broncos 20
Read more from Chuck:
• McDermott knew the Bills would host the Broncos
• The Bills are waiting to see who they play
• Where the St. Bonaventure victory over VCU ranks in program history
• Josh Allen showed why he should be the NFL MVP
• Pollock Prediction: Bills will beat Jets in a must-win game for playoff seeding
• What happened during those six lost days
• Bills didn’t play with a sense of urgency against the Patriots
• Bills passed a big test against the Lions
• The media missed the point with questions of McDermott
• We did not expect the Rams-Bills results as Josh Allen sets major records
• Will the Bills be motivated against the Rams?
• Schmidt doesn’t want the Bonnies to get caught up in 12-1 talk
• A look at the rise under Sean McDermott
• The snow and the Buffalo Bills were too much for the 49ers
• St. Bonaventure Bonnies put unbeaten hoops record on the line in ESPN Tournament
• Pollock Prediction on San Fran at Buffalo Sunday night game
• A look at Terry Pegula’s beginnings in Olean and his competitive drive to win
• A look at McDermott’s smart play-calling and why aren’t we talking more about James Cook?
• Can the Bills do this to the Chiefs in the playoffs? Josh Allen touchdown run seals victory
• Pollock predicts a one-point Kansas City victory
• What happened to this being a rebuilding season for the Buffalo Bills?
• A dominating performance by the Bills
• Pollock predicts a Bills victory over the Colts on the road
• Thoughts on the 61-yard Bass field goal and where the Bills sit
• Solid win to open the season for the Bonnies
• Bass vindicated by 61-yard field goal to beat the Dolphins
• Bills don’t own the Dolphins but have an option to buy; prediction 27-20 (final was 30-27)
• The season is here for St. Bonaventure basketball
• St. Bonaventure speaks out, “We got Woj”
• Mark Schmidt on the NIL deals and the Bona NIT mess
• Pollock on the passing of St. Bonaventure legend Paul Hoffman
• Pollock on listening to the radio and the days of Willie Mays
• Houghton’s Phil Stockin gets Cazzie Russell to the Castle in Olean and then a title for the Knicks?
• The right hire for St. Bonaventure to lead the athletic department
• The inside story on why WPIG left the Bonnies after 74 years and a Gary Nease update
• Bill Walton was must-see basketball when he played in Buffalo for the Braves
