Pollock Prediction: Why the Buffalo Bills have all the look of a 10-7 team

By CHUCK POLLOCK, Sun Senior Sports Columnist

So what happens with the Bills this season?

They enter Sunday afternoon’s season opener against Arizona at Highmark Stadium (WIVB-TV, Bills Radio Network, 1 o’clock) riding a streak of four straight AFC East titles and are a six-point favorite over the Cardinals.

But, as pointed out yesterday, this is a different team with nine new starters from a year ago at this time and 17 new faces have made the 53-man roster plus three others on injured reserve.

Six of last year’s eight captains are gone, replaced by quarterback Josh Allen and rising middle linebacker Terrel Bernard plus a 10-player leadership council.

Predictions for Buffalo’s record vary from 11-6 down to 8-9 courtesy of an analytics computer.

That said, here’s a look at this year’s Bills position-by-position:

OFFENSE

Line

Gone are two starters, sort of. The big loss is center Mitch Morse, a solid player whose leadership will be difficult to replace. His spot will be taken by Connor McGovern, last year’s left guard, a position that falls to newbie David Edwards. The right guard is O’Cyrus Torrence, a second-round steal last season. Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are the veteran tackles. The four backups are decent.

Grade: B

Receivers

This unit is the offense’s weakest. The most oft-repeated phrase about it is that Kahlil Shakir is the only current wideout to have caught a pass for Buffalo last season. On Sunday he will start along with two free agents, Curtis Samuel (Washington) and Mack Hollins (Atlanta). Keon Coleman, Buffalo’s initial draft selection with the first pick of the second round, has not earned a starting role after a so-so training camp. Former Chief Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the fifth wideout.

Grade: C

Tight end

Second-year pro Dalton Kincaid seems destined for a big year, especially given the uncertainty at wide receiver and Dawson Knox, though a bit overpaid, is a more-than-capable blocker. Quintin Morris, the No. 3, can catch and block.

Grade: B

Running back

James Cook rushed for 1,122 yards last season and caught 44 passes for a total six touchdowns. But he had a problem with fumbles (4) and drops. He’s backed by veteran Ty Johnson, rookie fourth-round draft pick Ray Davis and fullback/special teams stalwart Reggie Gilliam.

Grade: B-

Quarterback

Josh Allen is conceded to be one of the NFL’s elite at his position but he’s also been a turnover machine at times. He’s thrown 78 interceptions in his six seasons including a career-high 18 in 2023 and has fumbled 59 times — 24 of them lost — for 102 giveaways, the most of any QB over that span.

And that stat bit him in a recent ESPN poll of anonymous players who picked Allen as the NFL’s Most Overrated Quarterback. Backup QB Mitchell Trubisky has moved past his preseason knee injury and should be available Sunday.

Grade: A-

DEFENSE

Line

This group both doesn’t get enough sacks and is vulnerable to the run. It didn’t help that leading sacker Leonard Floyd (9.5) left for San Francisco as a free agent. Buffalo’s 54 ranked a solid fourth in the league, but too many were just not timely. And, in last year’s playoff loss to the Chiefs in Orchard Park, the entire defensive line and reserves combined for a mere seven tackles and no sacks. Worse, all four starters are back — ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa and tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. Once elite edge rusher Von Miller isn’t listed as a starter and there’s concern he might never recover from the knee injury he endured two Thanksgivings ago.

Grade: C

Linebacker

The loss of Matt Milano to a torn biceps — likely for the season — changes this grade. Last year, with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds going to Chicago as a free agent, it was seen as a disaster. Instead, budding star Terrel Bernard stepped in and performed at a high level. Now it’s up to second-year pro Dorian Williams, like Bernard, a third-round pick, to step in and do the same for Milano. In reserve are veterans Baylon Spector and Nicholas Morrow and rookies Joe Andreessen, the walk-on from UB, and Edefaun Ulofoshio.

Grade: C

Secondary

The only returning starter from last year’s opener is cornerback Christian Benford. The opposite corner is trade acquisition Rasul Douglas. At safety, with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde done, Sunday’s starters are Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp but pushing them are Mike Edwards, second-round draft pick Cole Bishop and versatile Cam Lewis.

Grade: C+

Special teams

Kicker Tyler Bass has to prove that his average season in 2023 was a aberration … especially that miss at the end of the Chiefs playoff game. Punter Sam Martin is, at best, a journeyman while long-snapper Reid Ferguson is one of the league’s best. The loss of captain Tyler Matakevich is hurtful in coverage as are the exits of Siran Neal, Tyrel Dodson and Dane Jackson.

Grade: C

OUTLOOK

The grades above are not those of a Super Bowl contender. On the other hand, one writer from New York picked the Bills to finish third in the AFC East behind the Jets and Dolphins. That seems a bit of an overcorrection.

From the time the schedule was released in May, my first reaction was Buffalo would go 10-7. And with the issues at wide receiver, linebacker and safety, there’s nothing to change my mind … it’s still 10-7 with playoff a berth, let alone a fifth straight AFC East title iffy.

(Chuck Pollock, a Wellsville Sun senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@wnynet.net.)

Pollock Prediction: Why the Buffalo Bills have all the look of a 10-7 team

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